Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 18,250
2 New Jersey 16,474
3 Massachusetts 12,478
4 Rhode Island 11,963
5 Connecticut 10,495
6 District of Columbia 10,092
7 Delaware 7,876
8 Illinois 7,446
9 Louisiana 7,406
10 Maryland 6,437
11 Nebraska 5,349
12 Pennsylvania 5,135
13 Michigan 5,112
14 Iowa 4,643
15 South Dakota 4,506
16 Indiana 4,221
17 Colorado 3,804
18 Mississippi 3,795
19 Virginia 3,560
20 Georgia 3,386
21 New Mexico 2,850
22 Minnesota 2,779
23 Kansas 2,769
24 New Hampshire 2,644
25 Washington 2,573
26 Tennessee 2,546
27 North Dakota 2,493
28 Alabama 2,400
29 Ohio 2,388
30 Utah 2,257
31 Nevada 2,254
32 Wisconsin 2,159
33 Florida 2,122
34 California 2,033
35 Arizona 1,914
36 Missouri 1,803
37 North Carolina 1,767
38 Kentucky 1,744
39 South Carolina 1,712
40 Texas 1,683
41 Arkansas 1,576
42 Vermont 1,506
43 Idaho 1,354
44 Oklahoma 1,341
45 Wyoming 1,302
46 Maine 1,255
47 Oregon 858
48 West Virginia 832
49 Puerto Rico 828
50 Alaska 541
51 Hawaii 444
52 Montana 437

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 207
2 Massachusetts 185
3 Connecticut 182
4 District of Columbia 182
5 Illinois 165
6 Nebraska 161
7 Maryland 159
8 Delaware 153
9 New Jersey 136
10 Minnesota 132
11 New York 117
12 Iowa 103
13 Virginia 100
14 Mississippi 91
15 Indiana 88
16 North Dakota 82
17 New Mexico 75
18 South Dakota 73
19 Wisconsin 73
20 Louisiana 67
21 Pennsylvania 67
22 Colorado 63
23 North Carolina 61
24 Arizona 57
25 Michigan 52
26 New Hampshire 52
27 Utah 49
28 Georgia 48
29 Alabama 45
30 California 45
31 Kansas 45
32 Ohio 44
33 Arkansas 43
34 Texas 42
35 South Carolina 40
36 Tennessee 39
37 Florida 36
38 Nevada 35
39 Missouri 31
40 Maine 30
41 Wyoming 30
42 Kentucky 29
43 Oklahoma 29
44 Washington 27
45 Puerto Rico 22
46 Idaho 12
47 Oregon 11
48 West Virginia 10
49 Alaska 4
50 Vermont 4
51 Montana 1
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,447
2 New Jersey 1,165
3 Connecticut 955
4 Massachusetts 841
5 District of Columbia 542
6 Louisiana 521
7 Michigan 489
8 Rhode Island 471
9 Pennsylvania 351
10 Illinois 331
11 Maryland 329
12 Delaware 297
13 Indiana 260
14 Colorado 210
15 Mississippi 175
16 Georgia 149
17 Ohio 139
18 Washington 133
19 Minnesota 129
20 New Hampshire 126
21 New Mexico 126
22 Virginia 118
23 Nevada 113
24 Iowa 111
25 Alabama 99
26 Missouri 98
27 Arizona 93
28 Florida 91
29 Vermont 86
30 California 83
31 Kentucky 77
32 Wisconsin 77
33 South Carolina 74
34 Oklahoma 72
35 Nebraska 66
36 Kansas 64
37 North Carolina 64
38 North Dakota 56
39 Maine 52
40 South Dakota 49
41 Texas 46
42 Tennessee 42
43 Idaho 40
44 Puerto Rico 38
45 West Virginia 37
46 Arkansas 32
47 Oregon 32
48 Utah 24
49 Montana 14
50 Wyoming 13
51 Hawaii 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Connecticut 17
2 Massachusetts 15
3 New Jersey 15
4 District of Columbia 11
5 Delaware 10
6 New York 9
7 Rhode Island 9
8 Colorado 7
9 Illinois 6
10 Maryland 6
11 Indiana 5
12 Louisiana 5
13 New Hampshire 5
14 Pennsylvania 5
15 Mississippi 4
16 Iowa 3
17 Michigan 3
18 Minnesota 3
19 New Mexico 3
20 Arizona 2
21 California 2
22 Missouri 2
23 Nebraska 2
24 Ohio 2
25 Virginia 2
26 Alabama 1
27 Florida 1
28 Georgia 1
29 Nevada 1
30 North Carolina 1
31 North Dakota 1
32 Texas 1
33 Washington 1
34 Wisconsin 1
35 Alaska 0
36 Arkansas 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Idaho 0
39 Kansas 0
40 Kentucky 0
41 Maine 0
42 Montana 0
43 Oklahoma 0
44 Oregon 0
45 Puerto Rico 0
46 South Carolina 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 122,563 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 75,452 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 73,326 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 62,925 4 99
Lake Tennessee 57,583 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,953 253 91
Richland South Carolina 2,978 602 80
Pierce Washington 1,990 872 72
Orange California 1,384 1170 62
York South Carolina 1,043 1428 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,813 2 99
Early Georgia 2,748 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,912 4 99
Nassau New York 1,855 5 99
Richland South Carolina 147 502 84
Pierce Washington 75 800 74
Davidson Tennessee 63 903 71
Orange California 28 1273 59
York South Carolina 18 1441 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons